Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,846
2 Rhode Island 143,659
3 South Dakota 140,545
4 Utah 127,516
5 Tennessee 124,506
6 Arizona 121,643
7 Iowa 118,011
8 Wisconsin 116,133
9 Nebraska 115,667
10 South Carolina 115,496
11 Oklahoma 114,788
12 New Jersey 114,705
13 Arkansas 113,730
14 Delaware 112,201
15 Indiana 111,641
16 Alabama 111,587
17 Illinois 109,747
18 Kansas 108,867
19 Florida 108,477
20 Idaho 108,264
21 New York 108,260
22 Mississippi 107,144
23 Minnesota 106,992
24 Nevada 106,123
25 Montana 105,539
26 Wyoming 105,418
27 Georgia 103,903
28 Kentucky 103,611
29 Massachusetts 102,804
30 Texas 102,397
31 Louisiana 102,204
32 Missouri 101,067
33 Michigan 99,597
34 Connecticut 97,697
35 New Mexico 97,251
36 California 96,174
37 North Carolina 96,112
38 Colorado 95,874
39 Alaska 95,693
40 Pennsylvania 94,684
41 Ohio 94,623
42 West Virginia 90,865
43 Virginia 79,365
44 Maryland 76,286
45 New Hampshire 72,839
46 District of Columbia 69,643
47 Washington 58,418
48 Puerto Rico 54,108
49 Maine 50,921
50 Oregon 48,442
51 Vermont 38,965
52 Hawaii 25,088

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Washington 138
2 Wyoming 137
3 Texas 122
4 Colorado 111
5 Missouri 104
6 Louisiana 96
7 Montana 96
8 Utah 96
9 Nevada 92
10 Kentucky 81
11 Arkansas 79
12 Oregon 71
13 Idaho 68
14 North Dakota 59
15 Indiana 58
16 West Virginia 56
17 Alabama 55
18 Arizona 55
19 Maine 46
20 Georgia 45
21 North Carolina 43
22 Mississippi 40
23 Pennsylvania 38
24 Kansas 37
25 New Mexico 37
26 Rhode Island 35
27 Michigan 34
28 Ohio 33
29 Delaware 31
30 Alaska 30
31 Hawaii 30
32 Illinois 30
33 Wisconsin 29
34 Iowa 28
35 South Carolina 28
36 New Jersey 27
37 Oklahoma 27
38 Tennessee 26
39 California 25
40 Minnesota 25
41 New Hampshire 24
42 New York 24
43 South Dakota 23
44 Virginia 23
45 Connecticut 21
46 District of Columbia 19
47 Maryland 18
48 Massachusetts 18
49 Nebraska 17
50 Vermont 17
51 Puerto Rico 12
52 Florida 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,963
2 New York 2,720
3 Massachusetts 2,601
4 Rhode Island 2,569
5 Mississippi 2,468
6 Arizona 2,437
7 Connecticut 2,316
8 Alabama 2,294
9 South Dakota 2,290
10 Louisiana 2,288
11 Pennsylvania 2,147
12 Michigan 2,072
13 New Mexico 2,049
14 Indiana 2,036
15 North Dakota 2,031
16 Illinois 2,006
17 Arkansas 1,940
18 Iowa 1,931
19 Georgia 1,923
20 South Carolina 1,895
21 Oklahoma 1,851
22 Nevada 1,824
23 Tennessee 1,815
24 Texas 1,794
25 Kansas 1,763
26 Delaware 1,724
27 Florida 1,721
28 Ohio 1,712
29 District of Columbia 1,611
30 California 1,610
31 Kentucky 1,607
32 Maryland 1,598
33 Missouri 1,594
34 West Virginia 1,589
35 Montana 1,532
36 Wisconsin 1,375
37 Minnesota 1,343
38 Virginia 1,320
39 Nebraska 1,300
40 North Carolina 1,265
41 Wyoming 1,252
42 Idaho 1,185
43 Colorado 1,181
44 New Hampshire 1,000
45 Puerto Rico 790
46 Washington 767
47 Utah 723
48 Oregon 652
49 Maine 627
50 Alaska 481
51 Vermont 410
52 Hawaii 354

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 West Virginia 5
2 Georgia 3
3 Michigan 3
4 Alabama 2
5 Colorado 2
6 Idaho 2
7 Iowa 2
8 Kentucky 2
9 Missouri 2
10 Oregon 2
11 Pennsylvania 2
12 Wisconsin 2
13 Wyoming 2
14 Arizona 1
15 Illinois 1
16 Indiana 1
17 Louisiana 1
18 Minnesota 1
19 Mississippi 1
20 Montana 1
21 Nevada 1
22 New Jersey 1
23 New Mexico 1
24 North Carolina 1
25 Ohio 1
26 Rhode Island 1
27 South Dakota 1
28 Texas 1
29 Alaska 0
30 Arkansas 0
31 California 0
32 Connecticut 0
33 Delaware 0
34 District of Columbia 0
35 Florida 0
36 Hawaii 0
37 Kansas 0
38 Maine 0
39 Maryland 0
40 Massachusetts 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New York 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 South Carolina 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Virginia 0
52 Washington -2

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 397,176 1 99
Crowley Colorado 364,626 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,851 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,339 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 247,006 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 143,300 191 93
Richland South Carolina 113,787 998 68
York South Carolina 113,606 1004 68
Orange California 85,845 2267 27
Pierce Washington 61,946 2828 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Hancock Georgia 8,159 3 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,603 1856 40
York South Carolina 1,384 2112 32
Richland South Carolina 1,381 2116 32
Davidson Tennessee 1,373 2131 32
Pierce Washington 733 2776 11

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons